With Brady Back, The Pats Are Playing Some Of Their Best Football Ever

Remember all that chatter about how this might finally be the year the New England Patriots would fall back to Earth? After all, Tom Brady was suspended for four games, and he'd presumably be rusty from the layoff when he returned. But instead of stumbling, the Pats weathered Brady's absence just fine, and they've been firing on all cylinders since their starting QB returned to the lineup three weeks ago. After Brady torched the Buffalo Bills for 315 yards and four touchdowns in a 41-25 victory Sunday, New England is 4-0 with Brady under center this season. It's also the best team in football, according to FiveThirtyEight's Elo ratings-based power rankings.

Stretches of superlative play are nothing new for the Patriots, of course, and the team's most recent four games are hardly the best it's played during Brady's tenure. But considering that Brady missed a month of football heading into them, they are surprisingly close. The Brady-led version of the 2016 Patriots is in the midst of the team's 10th-best distinct1 four-game stretch since 2006.2 That's based on how much more the Pats outscored their opponents than we'd expect an average NFL team to.

The Patriots' best distinct four-game stretches since 2006

At +17.8 points of scoring margin above average per game, the Brady-led version of the 2016 Pats is the best Patriots team since the beginning of the 2015 season, which — if you don't recall — was a really good stretch of football for them. And maybe the most remarkable thing about the Pats' current run is how they've been doing it. After surviving as a team without Brady for the season's first four games — they had a +4.5 margin above average through Week 4 — the Patriots have been relying on their QB to an unusual degree.

To see how much Brady was powering the team, I took that group of 20 four-game stretches since 2006 and measured how many expected points added (EPA) New England got out of its offense and defense (broken down further into rushing and passing) and special teams per game. I then plotted how the Patriots' most recent four games compare to the other 19 four-game stretches. Aside from Brady's brilliant passing, the Pats' most recent stretch has been below the norm of their other great four-game stretches in every other area of the game:

Brady didn't miss a beat after his suspension, coming back to lead the NFL by a mile in Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), passer rating and just about any other quarterback rate statistic you can think of. He's even crept up to 11th in touchdown passes despite playing half as many games as everyone else. According to EPA, this is nearly as good as we've seen the Patriots pass the ball over a four-game stretch since 2006.

But EPA also says the Pats have been doing some of their worst rushing and playing some of their worst defense over the same four games. Led by LeGarrette Blount and James White, New England has averaged just 3.5 yards per carry these past four games, and its defense is allowing 343 yards and 20 first downs per game — both numbers uncharacteristically average for a Patriots team whose best performances over the years were fueled by a strong defense on top of Brady's stellar offense.

So maybe it isn't the best idea to rely so heavily on a quarterback who turned 39 in August, since even the great ones can fall apart at a moment's notice. But on the other hand, Brady has shown no signs of being anything other than the best QB in football since his suspension ended. And as long as that's the case, the Patriots are going to strike fear in the hearts of every other team in the league.

Olympic officials to have talks about British football at Tokyo 2020

• Bill Sweeney of British Olympic Association wants teams at Games
• English FA fears losing sovereignty if an Olympic team is sent

Neymar experiences the joy of winning Olympic gold in football, after scoring the decisive penalty in the shootout against Germany. Photograph: Alejandro Ernesto/EPA

After the overall success in Rio British Olympic officials will have another go at persuading the home nations to enter men's and women's football teams for the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

The lack of a British women's side in particular was seen as a missed opportunity to grow the game.
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While the English FA was keen to enter a side in Rio, the other home nations would not agree.

They feared it would undermine their sovereignty and refused to be pushed into the move, even though Fifa has given guarantees it would not affect their status.

If the women's side, who qualified because England finishing third at the World Cup in Canada, had taken up their place it would have denied the eventual Olympic silver medallists, Sweden, a slot.

"We are all desperately disappointed that there isn't a football team for Team GB, primarily the women's because they are so strong, had a great season leading up to this, but also on the men's side as well," said Bill Sweeney, the British Olympic Association's chief executive.
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"And we'll be having meetings when we get back to try and sort that out with the FA. If you look at the success of women's hockey here, to have had a similar sort of story in football would have been absolutely fantastic."

UK Sport chief executive Liz Nicholl said the FA had been in touch to learn some of the lessons of its Olympic success and that it would be "fantastic" to have the women's side, in particular, on board in Tokyo.

"The FA has been in touch, particularly in relation to women's potential success," she said. "And I would say here, we could win more medals in Tokyo, actually we could win one more medal in Tokyo from a sport like football, if we had the GB women's football team here. I have no doubt they would have also won a medal here in Rio."

New England manager Sam Allardyce has also backed the return of a British team to the Olympics, which happened on a one-off basis for London 2012.

"When you see the delight on Justin Rose's face when he won the gold medal in golf it shows what it all means," he told the BBC. "It's something we may look at in the future and try to compete in."

But any attempt by the BOA to return to the subject is bound to be politically sensitive and it may look to lead the discussions itself rather than through the English FA.

"I think the athletes would have loved the environment and would have loved to have had the chance to perform at their best in a country like Brazil, which is so passionate about football," said Sweeney.

Slick Melbourne City put five past Central Coast Mariners in A-League

A Harry Novillo brace helped Melbourne City to a 5-1 disposal of Central Coast to surge to fourth on the A-League ladder. John Van ‘t Schip’s men on Thursday night became the first team in A-League history to score five goals in consecutive games with Bruno Fornaroli, Stefan Mauk and Aaron Mooy also netting.

A reduced crowd of 4,514 turned out at Central Coast Stadium in the first of a league-wide protest against Football Federation Australia. Active supporter group the Yellow Army had “Gone to the pub”, according to the banner left in their bay, while the regular brass band did not play.

The rest witnessed a manic match in which the Mariners struggled without suspended captain Nick Montgomery. The Scot’s absence left 20-year-old Harry Ascroft with the unenviable task of marking Mooy.

Mitch Austin had clearly been itching to return after a game out with a foot injury, the 24-year-old executing bursting runs down the park. And the Mariners created chances, but their attacking play left them hopelessly exposed on the counter-attack.

City smelled blood. An error from defender Jacob Poscoliero only aided the visitors’ cause as Fornaroli sashayed on the counter-attack and crossed for Novillo to finish crisply.

It was on the cusp of half-time that Fornaroli stretched the margin with his seventh goal in nine games. Jack Clisby found Novillo, who tapped to Fornaroli on the left flank. He could have simply had a shot, but the Uruguayan displayed excellent decision-making to thread a delicious pass to Erik Paartalu, before receiving the ball again at a more-inviting angle to put away.

The Mariners went close after the break when Nick Fitzgerald fired a bullet from the edge of the area that forced City goalkeeper Thomas Sorensen to stretch fingertips.
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However, another defensive error gifted City the ball inside Central Coast’s third and Novillo capitalised, sending it whistling across the face of goal and into the corner out of keeper Paul Izzo’s reach.

They weren’t done yet. Once Ascroft was subbed off, a freed-up Mooy made his move, flitting down the right and crossing with precision for Mauk to ram home.

The Mariners were down to 10 men for the final 13 minutes after a groggy Storm Roux was guided off the field with suspected concussion. It seemingly didn’t matter, with Austin finally getting his moment after earning a penalty kick that he had no problem converting for the Mariners’ sole consolation.

And in time added on, Mooy couldn’t stay out of the action, slamming one into the roof of the net.

Crystal Palace’s Scott Dann rises highest to down Liverpool

“You must be sick of us,” the Crystal Palace fans sang, and Liverpool could only concur. Alan Pardew’s team inflicted the first defeat of the Jürgen Klopp era with their third consecutive Premier League victory over the men from Anfield. One month into the job and Klopp is au fait with Liverpool’s problem club.

Goals from the excellent Yannick Bolasie and Scott Dann, a former Anfield season-ticket holder, gave Palace their latest Merseyside triumph. Pardew has now been involved in all three of Palace’s league wins at Anfield, as a player in 1991 and twice as a manager in 2015, and Liverpool again struggled against his enterprising tactics. Klopp was dismayed by both the outcome and the number of early leavers after Dann scored in the 82nd minute.

The former Borussia Dortmund coach had a point; this was an absorbing contest and Christian Benteke squandered several chances, but the visitors’ defence and counter-attacking play were outstanding. It was the perfect combination for an eye-catching away win.

“We made a conscious decision to take the game to Liverpool,” said Pardew, who had promised his players an extra day off this week in the event of victory. “I said to the players that the problem with this team is it doesn’t trust how good it can be. We proved that when we backed off and allowed Liverpool to dominate but once we went toe-to-toe with them we held our own. It is difficult to do that at these big arenas like Liverpool and Manchester United. In the last two games we have defended brilliantly and it has got us four massive points against two big clubs.”

Steven Gerrard was in the crowd for the first time since departing for Los Angeles and must have had flashbacks to his last appearance at Anfield. Palace started in the same dominant fashion that ruined his Liverpool farewell in May, with Pardew’s deployment of Bolasie alongside Bakary Sako in attack unnerving the home defence.

Bolasie, outstanding in Palace’s 3-1 win last season, once again troubled Liverpool with his pace and touch. Only after the Congo international had given the visitors a deserved lead did Klopp’s team find the urgency, accuracy and energy demanded. They could not sustain it and a potentially serious knee injury to Mamadou Sakho compounded the new manager’s misery. “I would rather lose 4-1 and keep him in the team,” said Klopp about the France defender, who will have a scan on Monday.

Palace punished several defensive lapses from Liverpool in opening the scoring. Sako rode a weak challenge from Alberto Moreno to release Wilfried Zaha down the right. Emre Can made a hash of clearing Zaha’s low cross, Bolasie reacted quicker to the loose ball than Lucas Leiva, captain for the day in the absence of the injured Jordan Henderson and James Milner, and beat Simon Mignolet with an unstoppable finish from 10 yards.

Liverpool looked like a team that had made a 5,000-mile round trip to Kazan in midweek but the breakthrough woke them from their lethargy. Jordon Ibe and Nathaniel Clyne began to dominate the right wing, Philippe Coutinho and Adam Lallana found space behind Palace’s midfield shield and the visitors struggled to break in numbers.

Benteke forced Wayne Hennessey into his first save of the game with a textbook header from Ibe’s corner and wasted a good chance from Lallana’s inviting pass. The equaliser arrived from an excellent team move that sent Klopp high-fiving into the supporters behind his dugout. Ibe released Clyne on the right of the penalty area, Lallana flicked the full-back’s cross towards the far post and, just as he did at Stamford Bridge last weekend, Coutinho brought Liverpool level with an emphatic shot beyond Hennessey.

An open game continued to flow and both sides had cause to regret their finishing in the second half. Benteke, who struggled throughout, shot over from Coutinho’s through ball, headed over from Moreno’s cross and over-elaborated inside the area when put clear by the Brazilian. Sako wasted a better opening for Palace, hitting the side netting from six yards after Bolasie’s break and cross from the right had left the striker with only Mignolet to beat.

Klopp replaced the poor Can with Roberto Firmino and switched to a 4-1-4-1 formation but the changes prompted an improvement only from Palace, who retook the lead with eight minutes remaining. Liverpool fan Dann towered over Firmino to head Yohan Cabaye’s corner goalwards, Mignolet parried the effort but straight back to the defender who steered his second header into the top corner. “Scott had about 15 family members here today,” said Pardew. “I think he has been really underestimated throughout his career but now I manage him I realise how good he is. He was superb in everything he did.”

Ross Barkley shines as England beat Estonia in Euro 2016 qualifying

There is only one small thing that can be held against Ross Barkley after his contribution to England’s latest win and it is that Estonia were obliging opponents for a man desperate to show it is time he is turned into a mandatory first-team pick. All the same, Barkley must have done enough here to make it difficult in the extreme for Roy Hodgson to leave him out. It was his finest night in England’s colours and when Barkley plays with this freedom and exuberance it is easy to see why Hodgson sees flashes of Paul Gascoigne in the Everton player.

Barkley was outstanding, thrilling an impressively large Wembley crowd, and the pass to set up Theo Walcott for England’s first goal – a diagonal 15-yard nutmeg through a congested penalty area – was of that rare variety when it felt like the pot of superlatives might run dry. Suffice to say it was an extraordinary piece of individual brilliance, taking out five defenders with one piece of vision and high skill. Not everything Barkley tried came off but he can be forgiven the odd lapse when he is capable of conjuring up these moments of brilliance and it was exhilarating to see the way he took his chance, as if absolutely determined to show he deserved to be in this team

Twice in the second half he came close to scoring a spectacular goal, on each occasion evading two defenders with that wonderful balance and body movement, before leaving the pitch late on for Dele Alli to make his senior debut. By then England had scored a second goal, created by the substitute Jamie Vardy and turned in by Raheem Sterling, and Hodgson’s team have now won all nine of their qualifiers. They are the only team in the entire process with an immaculate record and a 10th is likely when they wrap everything up in Lithuania on Monday.

Hodgson’s plan in Vilnius is to play a more experimental side, featuring Jack Butland in goal and Jonjo Shelvey in midfield with Phil Jones and Phil Jagielka returning in defence, and five players – Wayne Rooney, James Milner, Michael Carrick, Gary Cahill and Joe Hart – returning to their clubs. Barkley was deployed here in a withdrawn, slightly left-sided position rather than the more advanced No 10 role where he has excelled for Everton this season and Hodgson said that would continue.

Barkley’s involvement always give England a more exciting feel and his contribution was also a reminder that a perfectly executed pass can be every bit as beautiful as a shot into the top corner or a mazy, dribbling run through the opposition defence. It is difficult to remember a more exquisitely delivered nutmeg, or certainly one that doubles up as a defence-splitting through-ball, and perhaps the most impressive part was that when he spotted the chance to go between Karol Mets’s legs it was more than just one-upmanship that compelled him to find the gap.

Barkley played the ball with equal measures of speed and accuracy and suddenly Walcott was six yards from goal with time to control the pass and side-foot his shot inside the far post. It was a wonderful goal and Hodgson, one imagines, will forgive Barkley for the stray pass across midfield earlier in the match, giving the ball straight to an Estonian attacker. Barkley will always be a risk-taker but amid all the acclaim he does need to be aware that, against a better team, that form of carelessness could have left his team in danger.

England had been laboured for much of the first half and there was a slow feel to the game once the home team could not make the most of their early superiority. Perhaps that was just inevitable given that England had qualified for the tournament, chosen their Euro 2016 hotel and arranged most of their warm-up matches while there were still three qualifying games to go. It did, however, make it a prosaic spectacle at times for a crowd that could not even get enthused enough to arrange a proper Mexican wave.

Walcott did at least show signs that he wanted to make something happen, including an early volley that brought a flying save from the goalkeeper, Mihkel Aksalu, and a deflected shot into the side-netting after Adam Lallana’s flick. Overall, though, it was an undistinguished first-half performance and there were even fleeting moments when Estonia abandoned their ultra-cautious approach to break forward. It would be an exaggeration to say Hart’s goal was seriously threatened but it did take an improvised flick from Chris Smalling to turn Konstantin Vassiljev’s left-wing cross behind for a corner.

Estonia quickly settled back into conservatism during the second half, creating little of note and making it difficult to assess the performance of England’s defence. Hodgson’s team were in complete control despite holding only a one-goal lead and Barkley, as Hodgson said, was “strutting his stuff”. One driving run through midfield took the 21-year-old from the centre circle all the way into the penalty area before he was halted. A left-foot shot flashed just wide, then a right-footed effort drew another save from Aksalu.

It was not until the 85th minute, however that England made certain of the victory. Harry Kane, who worked hard in place of the injured Rooney without having one of his better games, flicked on a long goal-kick, Vardy was given the benefit of the doubt after nudging Taijo Teniste to the ground and, running in from the left, squared the ball for Sterling to score from close range.